Tuesday's bond market has opened well in positive territory following a surprising drop in consumer confidence and significant losses in stocks. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the economic data and concerns about the global economy. This has pushed the Dow down 280 points and the Nasdaq down 76 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.
June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted late this morning, revealing a reading of 52.9. This was far short of the 62.0 that was expected and indicates that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. Declining confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. That limits economic growth because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage rates yet again. This morning's rally has pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note below 3.00% for the first time in quite a while. The question is whether it can hold below that level. If it remains below that threshold the next day or so, we could see more gains for bonds and even lower mortgage rates. But if the resistance is too strong, proving that 3.00% is a strong floor rather than a ceiling, mortgage rates would likely give back some of their recent improvements.
The next data scheduled this week comes late Thursday morning when the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June. This important index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting a reading of 59.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business worsened from the previous month, when we saw a 59.7 reading. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a weaker than expected reading. Contributing information from www.mortgagecommentary.com
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